The opposition in Belarus promised a 'hot spring' with new mass protests against Lukashenko. But active repression in the last months precluded that and from 25 till 27 March there were no demonstrations to be seen. It is a failure for the opposition and a seemlingly victory for the regime, but the deep distrust has not disappeared and some day the anger of the people will erupt again.

Belarusians must chart their own future. The West can encourage them but it's too presumptuous and too counter-productive to tell them how to act. In the meantime, sanctions are ineffective and might actually make Belarus more dependent on Russia, argues Mark Galeotti. The West should provide practical aid and comfort. And Lukashenko should no longer be referred to as the president of Belarus. It’s a symbolic measure, but symbolism matters in politics.

The social economic circumstances for the presidential elections in Belarus are extremely unfavourable for the authorities. Recession, decline in living standards and no reforms in sight, have caused popular protests and a wish for change. The risk of the regime falling, however, is still pretty low. Re-elected, a weakened president Lukashenka, may be forced to resort to increased Russian subsidies and thus severely limit the sovereignty of his country