Prigozhin

Moscow still bets on nuclear blackmail and other threats of escalation, believing that at some point it will work. As long as the Western leaders are focused on a need to de-escalate, they are in fact deterring themselves instead of Russia. However, as soon as Putin encounters a rival who doesn’t back down, he’s lost. The only way to defeat him is to push him into a corner and prove he’s a little fearful man.

Prigozhin thought that his ‘hard drive’ of Putin’s murky network of contacts, conspiracies and deals might save him, following his mutiny. He was wrong, writes the well-known Russian historian Vladislav Zubok. But his murder means Putin is now more Mafia Don than Imperial Tsar.

Current and former Wagner mercenaries tell Lilia Yapparova what they think will happen to the Wagner Group now that its leader has been killed. The general consensus is that Prigozhin personally controlled most of Wagner Group’s activities and that without him, the private military company seems likely to crumble.

An autocratic regime is only stable as long as the elites are convinced that no one in their ranks will dare to oppose the leader. Until now the Russian elites have kept their heads low, although privately many members have negative feelings about the war and its consequences. Thanks to Prigozhin's mutiny Putin’s vulnerability has become public knowledge and public spectacle.

During his march on Moscow, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was counting on solidarity from senior army officers. Considering the fact he came close to reaching the capital without encountering any particular resistance, he might not have been completely mistaken.

The war has gradually revealed Putin to be an ’emperor without clothes’. Even his inner circle will soon be forced to admit that. Though Prigozhin’s coup lasted less than 24 hours, it’s likely to have major consequences for Putin’s system of power in the foreseeable future.

Remarkable shifts take place in the Russian elite. More and more feuds between apparatchiks come out into the open. Conflicts among high-profile politicians and the siloviki are a sign of the collapse of the old system. This might be the beginning of a change of Russia’s system of power.