Nagorno-Karabakh

Recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh are a sign that Russia is no longer able to protect its interests in the Caucasus. Even loyal vassal Armenia is losing faith in Putin's traditional support for Armenia in the conflict.

Russian analysts see a changing attitude in the Kremlin’s reactions to crises in Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kyrgyzstan. In their view the Kremlin is becoming more pragmatic. German Russia expert Hannes Adomeit disagrees and argues that Russia just follows traditional imperial Russian (and Soviet) patterns of behaviour.

Probably thousands of Azerbaijani and Armenians were killed during the six weeks that the battle for Nagorno-Karabakh lasted. President Putin spoke of 5.000 casualties. Officials in Armenia have reported 2.400 dead and hundreds of missing persons. The victorious Azerbaijani government, however, remains silent, while the anguished families are scrambling for news about their missing loved ones. But no one outside the halls of power knows for sure what happened to them.

In the peace plan of nine points for Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan is the clear winner, while Turkey also benefits. Moscow claims a diplomatic succes, but will have to deal with a very difficult implementation and no solution for the conflict in sight. Russia may need wider international support to make it work.

Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia brokered a cease-fire on Karabakh before the Azeri managed to recapture the Armenian enclave of Karabakh.It is a win for Russia: the West is out and Turkey officially didn't sign the armistice. However, Turkish troups can be invited to Azerbaijan any time.

Russia witnesses worrying developments in what it sees as its 'Near Abroad' or sphere of influence, like the Caucasus and Belarus. But war and revolution are not inimical to Moscow if they follow paths Russian policymakers understand and even support.

As the international global order is unraveling, Russia is facing a belligerent Turkey in the deadly Nagorno-Karabakh escalation.

Two new factors make the hostilities, which erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the enclave Nagorno-Karabakh, more dangerous. For the first time Turkey is openly backing one of the parties, Azerbaijan, and the United States is unusually disengaged. Russia has leverage, but will never be able to deliver a peace agreement on its own. Region-expert Thomas de Waal calls for serious American and European engagement to stem the conflict.