Belarusian President Lukashenko has had a complicated love-hate relationship with the Kremlin. While Belarus has generally aligned its foreign policy outlook with the Russian Federation, at various moments Lukashenko tried to keep his geopolitical options open. In a special report Institute Clingendael identifies six scenarios for the future of Belarus and further elaborates the consequences of four of them.

While Moscow pushes Belarus into further integration with Russia, talks between Putin and Lukashenko on December 7th failed to bring substantial progress. Minsk is playing hard to get and is not willing to obtain economic gains at all costs, but it's unlikely that Moscow’s embrace will shift from fraternal to fratricidal, argues Matthew Frear.