During a meeting at the Ministry of Defense on 21 December Putin promised 'adequate military and technical responses' if the West continues its 'clearly aggressive line' of NATO expansion. Accepting means 'a fundamental overhaul of the current European security order in favour of Russia'. But refusal gives Russia the pretext for military action against Ukraine.

The perseverance of the Belarusian demonstrators has been amazing - for more than 2 months now every week a hundred thousand or more marched in Minsk - but there are signs that the energy is diminishing. Partly this is due to weather conditions, partly to growing threats of the use of violence by the authorities. In this respect the ultimatum of Lukashenka's presidential opponent Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is a risky step.