scenarios 2023

Gustav Gressel, defence expert for the European Council of Foreign Relations, assesses the prospects for the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces.

The war is in a transitional phase. Russian forces are entrenching and continuing their strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure. The Ukrainian army tries to maintain pressure and improve its air defense. The most probable scenario for the coming months is a dynamic front and a steadily progress of realisation of the Ukrainian goals. But an end to the war and victory is far away.