Putin's former repressive authoritarianisme since the invasion of Ukraine has morphed into a new form of government: neo-totalitarianism. Public discourse is captured by warmongers, pluralism in the ruling elite is wiped out and the population is politically mobilised for a long war, based on a war economy.

The constitutional, political and social changes of 2020–2021 have proven so sweeping and profound that the Russian regime is undergoing a renaissance. An abyss opened up: you are either pro-regime or anti-regime. In the last case you are criminal.

The Belarusian government’s move to destroy the country’s biggest non-state media outlet—the website tut.by—is as sign that eliminating political threats isn’t just a priority, it’s the regime’s only task. With de-escalation becoming almost impossible, society will become even more polarized, and fewer and fewer people will be prepared to forgive the regime. Belarus is facing the danger of a violent escalation.