nuclear threat

Moscow still bets on nuclear blackmail and other threats of escalation, believing that at some point it will work. As long as the Western leaders are focused on a need to de-escalate, they are in fact deterring themselves instead of Russia. However, as soon as Putin encounters a rival who doesn’t back down, he’s lost. The only way to defeat him is to push him into a corner and prove he’s a little fearful man.

Russia’s suspension of the New START Treaty is unlikely to impact the United States’ willingness to keep backing Ukraine, but it could certainly have an adverse long-term effect on Russia’s security.