Although Moldova is not directly involved in Russia's war in Ukraine, the war has tremendous influence on the country's position. Moldovan national security faces three significant threats.

Getting the candidate status for EU membership on 23 June 2022 for Ukraine and Moldova was far more than a symbolic gesture. For the first time in its history Ukraine has the prospect of a European future.But there is a long way to go and Ukraine needs help and support. In the end it might strengthen the EU substantially.

Russian analysts see a changing attitude in the Kremlin’s reactions to crises in Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kyrgyzstan. In their view the Kremlin is becoming more pragmatic. German Russia expert Hannes Adomeit disagrees and argues that Russia just follows traditional imperial Russian (and Soviet) patterns of behaviour.

On November 15 the young reformer Maia Sandu convincingly won the presidential elections in Moldova. By defeating the Moscow-oriented Igor Dodon she became the country's first female president. Putin congratulated her, but Dodon tellingly immediately left for Moscow. It is the start of an uphill fight.