In 2020 the Russian economy on the whole performed better than expected. But the middle class was badly hit by covid-19 and the most vital reforms, long overdue, again failed to materialize. Economic editor Ivan Tkachev of newsagency RBK analyses the bleak prospects for recovery in 2021. According to the government Russians’ real disposable income this year will drop by 3%, whereas independent economists predict a decline of 4–5%.

What to expect in 2020? Putin’s power within the system and Russia’s leverage in the world are still relatively great, but the ideas to change anything appear to be lacking. Putin and his entourage seem to think 'better safe than sorry'. So it will be more of the same: economic malaise, political repression and frozen conflict in the Donbas, argues Mark Galeotti.

Russians watch Putin's annual call-in show for clues about what the future will bring, but the president took them back to the past. Putin invoked the 1990s to show that life could be worse, if not for his 20 years in power. We republish a slightly abridged report of the show, written by Steve Gutterman for Radio Free Europe, followed by quotations of Putin's most remarkable statements.