Armenia

A fresh disaster may be looming in Nagorny Karabakh. On September 19, the majority-Armenian highland enclave within the borders of Azerbaijan came under attack from Azerbaijan. The lightning offensive overwhelmed inferior Armenian forces, and Azerbaijan took possession of the province it had not controlled in thirty-five years. Force, not diplomacy has decided the course of this conflict.

Recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh are a sign that Russia is no longer able to protect its interests in the Caucasus. Even loyal vassal Armenia is losing faith in Putin's traditional support for Armenia in the conflict.

Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia brokered a cease-fire on Karabakh before the Azeri managed to recapture the Armenian enclave of Karabakh.It is a win for Russia: the West is out and Turkey officially didn't sign the armistice. However, Turkish troups can be invited to Azerbaijan any time.

While the popular uprising against the Lukashenko regime is not abating, Russia faces the dilemma whether to intervene or not to intervene. According to Russia-expert Hannes Adomeit it is unlikely that Russia will just wait and consent to a new government, as it did in Armenia. Russia might look for a Belarusian Jaruzelski or resort to hybrid intervention. The attittude of the West hardly has any impact: domestic political considerations will determine Russia's behaviour.