annexation

The Kremlin’s decision to hold referendums in the Russian-occupied part of the Ukrainian Donbas on their attachment to Russia and partially mobilise Russian reservists indicate that Putin is playing va banque. He hopes to deter Kyiv from reconquering the occupied territory. In reality these decisions will lead to more Ukrainian attacks and carry political risks for Putin’s regime.

After the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 many feared that this 'compatriot protection scheme' could become a precedent. The author concludes that conditions in Belarus are ultimately unfavorable to Russian-sponsored secessionism. The national uprising after the election fraud of August 2020 proved to be a gamechanger as well.

After the announcement of Trump's so-called 'Deal of the Century' for settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Moscow showed restraint and only said that it will 'study' the plan. Actually, Russia hopes to benefit, because the 'deal' let major powers dictate their terms to weaker ones. This bodes well for international recognition of the annexation of Crimea, argues foreign policy analist Vladimir Frolov.